With midterm Election Day quickly approaching, political analysts view both chambers as genuinely in play. The Cook Political Report currently gives Democrats the advantage in the fight for the House majority, and over the summer, they moved several Republican-held Senate seats to ‘competitive’ leaving more uncertainty.
Spotlight on the Senate:
Control of the Senate remains one of the central questions of the 2026 midterm elections. Although Republicans currently hold the majority, the outcome may hinge on a small number of races in competitive states. Democrats would need a net gain of four seats to take control in January 2027 — meaning they must retain every seat they currently have and flip four Republican-held seats. Throughout much of the cycle, analysts have viewed nine Senate races as the seats most likely to change party hands: six Republican-held seats in Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, Iowa, and Alaska, and three Democratic-held seats in Georgia, Michigan, and New Hampshire.
More recently, two additional GOP-held seats, in Kansas and Nebraska, have emerged as potentially competitive. Democrats face an uphill climb, targeting several Republican-held seats in states that strongly backed Trump. Several other states—Montana, South Carolina, Florida, Mississippi, and South Dakota—offer potential pickup opportunities for Democrats, but those races are widely viewed as longer-shot opportunities that would require notable upsets to flip.
From Solid Republican to Likely Republican?
Kansas and Nebraska each present unusual circumstances that have drawn national attention to races that have not recently been contested.
Kansas: Incumbent Republican Sen. Roger Marshall faces Democratic nominee Adam Hamilton, a United Methodist pastor who explored an independent bid before running as a Democrat. Hamilton won a crowded August primary and set a state record for Senate campaign fundraising. Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932.
Nebraska: Independent Dan Osborn is challenging Republican incumbent Pete Ricketts. Previously, Osborn lost to Sen. Deb Fischer (R) by fewer than seven points in 2024 in a state President Trump carried by twenty. Osborn has said he would not caucus with either party, meaning a win here would complicate the majority math rather than settle it.
Why does this matter?
Unlike the House, where a national shift can move dozens of races at once, the Senate turns on a handful of states. Of course, the ‘majority party’ in each chamber essentially sets the agenda including the federal funding for key programs supported across the Lutheran Services in America network, including — Medicaid, SNAP, aging and disability services, and child welfare among them. Engagement is essential as November approaches, and as we look ahead to 2027.
Key Toss Ups in House:
Republican:
- MI-10 OPEN (James)
- OH-07 Miller
- WI-03 Van Orden
Democrat:
- FL-14 Castor
Key Toss Ups in Senate:
Republican
- AK Sullivan
- IA OPEN (Ernst)
- ME Collins
- OH Husted
- TX OPEN (Cornyn)
Democrat
- MI OPEN (Peters)
Note that “toss-up” is a narrower category than “battleground” — several of the nine battleground races, including North Carolina and Georgia, are currently rated Lean rather than Toss Up.
What can you do now?
With the midterms approaching and many competitive toss– up races, we encourage our members to take the following steps to stay engaged and prepared:
- Use our Here We Stand action guide to raise the health care priorities you want candidates to address at the state level.
- Monitor emerging candidates in toss-up Congressional and gubernatorial races, and track redistricting in your state to identify newly competitive seats as maps evolve.
- Strengthen voter outreach by making sure the people you serve understand any documentation requirements and changes to voter registration processes in your state.
Kylie Bowlds is an Issue Education & External Relations Associate at Lutheran Services in America.