With Republicans currently holding control across the executive, legislative, and judicial branches of the U.S. government, the 2026 midterm elections are emerging at a critical juncture for the future direction of federal policy. The outcome of these elections determines whether we will see the continuation of complete Republican control, or whether a new balance of power emerges, most likely through a Democratic shift in the House of Representatives.
Key races in both chambers are beginning to take shape, and we’re closely tracking a growing number of toss-up contests that will determine the control of Congress. As these campaigns continue to take shape, early and sustained engagement with both current and prospective lawmakers is essential to make sure our collective voices are heard. Now is the time to build relationships that will help inform and educate future decision-making and to ensure the interests of the communities we serve are prioritized.
Toss-Ups to Watch
Senate: Several Senate races are expected to be highly competitive. These include:
- Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME)
- Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA)
- Open seats in Michigan and North Carolina
House: On the Democratic side, toss up seats include:
- AZ-13 (Gray)
- CA-45 (Tran)
- ME-02 (Golden)
- NC-01 (Davis)
- NM-02 (Vasquez)
- NY-04 (Gillen)
- OH-09 (Kaptur)
- OH-13 (Sykes)
- TX-28 (Cuellar)
- WA-03 (Perez)
Republican-held seats that are expected to be competitive include:
- AZ-01 (Ciscomani)
- CO-08 (Evans)
- IA-01 (Miller-Meeks)
- MI-07 (Barrett)
- PA-07 (Mackenzie)
- PA-10 (Perry)
- WI-03 (Van Orden)
- An open seat in Arizona
What You Can Do Now
Members of Congress will recess the week of November 10 in observance of the Veterans Day holiday. This presents a timely and strategic opportunity to engage directly with elected officials in their home districts and states. We strongly encourage our members to:
- Request in-district or in-state meetings with their representatives
- Invite lawmakers for site visits to showcase the impact of your work firsthand
These conversations are instrumental in building lasting relationships with policymakers and in ensuring your priorities are represented in the decisions that follow.
Sarah Dobson is Senior Director of Advocacy and Public Policy at Lutheran Services in America.