With the primaries in full swing, both Democrats and Republicans are watching key races that will shape the midterm matchups in November and ultimately determine who controls Congress next year. Upcoming primaries will give heightened insight into the direction of the Democratic party, with voters in many states choosing between moderate and progressive candidates.
Michigan in Focus
Michigan has emerged as one of the most closely watched battlegrounds of the 2026 election cycle. The state features both a highly competitive Senate race and one of the nation’s key House battlegrounds, making it a critical test of political trends heading into November.
In the Senate race to replace retiring incumbent Gary Peters (D), former U.S. Representative Mike Rogers, the Republican nominee, will face Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, a former Wayne County health director backed by Senator Bernie Sanders. El-Sayed secured the Democratic nomination in the August 4 primary after narrowly defeating U.S. Representative Haley Stevens approximately 48.5% to 47.5% in one of the cycle’s closest and most expensive Democratic primaries. The campaign highlighted ongoing debates within the Democratic Party over the strengths of progressive versus more centrist candidates.
The battle for Michigan’s 7th Congressional District is expected to be one of the most competitive House races in the country. Republican incumbent Tom Barrett first won the seat in 2024 with 50.3% of the vote and is seeking a second term. On August 4, Democratic voters nominated William Lawrence, a progressive organizer endorsed by Senator Bernie Sanders, to challenge Barrett in November. Lawrence emerged the victor following a three-way primary, setting up a closely watched general election contest in a district widely viewed as a toss-up.
Michigan’s political landscape reflects broader national dynamics shaping the 2026 midterms. Democrats continue to navigate tensions between their progressive and moderate wings, while Republicans face the challenge of defending key seats and maintaining their congressional majorities. and maintaining their congressional majorities.
Redistricting and State Legal Challenges
Redistricting efforts and related legal challenges continue to contribute to uncertainty and the potential for major shake-ups post-election. Following the April Supreme Court ruling in Louisiana v. Callais—which narrowed Section Two of the Voting Rights Act—states were allowed to redraw Congressional maps ahead of the midterms, and 10 states have done so: Alabama, California, Florida, Louisiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee, Texas. Additionally, Maryland lawmakers held a special session to consider a partisan redistricting effort, while New York passed a redistricting amendment which could potentially lead to a gain of 4 Democratic seats, but which still requires another vote next year and public approval. Finally, redistricting plans were considered but failed in Virginia, South Carolina, Georgia, Indiana, and Washington.
Key Races to Watch
In the House, Democratic Toss Ups include:
- FL-25 Moskowitz
- OH-09 Kaptur
- TX-34 Gonzalez
- WA-03 Perez
Republican Toss Ups:
- AZ-01 Open (Schweikert)
- AZ-06 Ciscomani
- CA-22 Valadao
- CO-08 Evans
- IA-01 Miller-Meeks
- IA-03 Nunn
- MI-07 Barrett
- NJ-07 Kean Jr.
- NY-17 Lawler
- PA-07 Mackenzie
- PA-08 Bresnahan
- PA-10 Perry
- VA-02 Kiggans
- WI-03 Van Orden
Senate races that are expected to be competitive include:
- AK Sullivan (R)
- ME Collins (R)
- MI OPEN (Peters, D)
- OH Husted (R)
What You Can Do Now
With so many competitive races in the fast-approaching midterms, we encourage our members to take the following steps to stay engaged and prepared:
- Stay connected and monitor candidates in toss-up states and districts — including congressional and gubernatorial races.
- Monitor state level redistricting in your state to stay aware of any newly competitive seats that emerge as maps evolve.
- Leverage the August Congressional Recess to schedule meetings and site visits while lawmakers are back in their states and districts for several weeks.
- Strengthen Voter Outreach by ensuring your communities understand potential documentation requirements and any changes to voter registration processes.
Carl Dexter is an Intern at Lutheran Services in America.