The Current Landscape
As the Midterm elections approach, key primaries are beginning to shed light on potential outcomes of the November elections. Republicans are defending narrow majorities in both chambers, with a 5-seat margin in the House and a 3-seat margin in the Senate, while contending with historical headwinds. Republicans are less unified in their messaging, with leadership touting actions stemming from passage of H.R. 1, while other candidates in tight races are distancing themselves from the cuts made to Medicaid.
Meanwhile, Democrats seek to strengthen their chances of retaking House and potentially Senate majorities centered around cost-of-living concerns and opposition to recent health care cuts.
What’s at Stake?
A Democratic majority would likely result in efforts to reverse recent health care cuts, while continued Republican control of both chambers would likely mean a sustained emphasis on oversight and continued implementation of H.R. 1 provisions.
Race to Redistrict: The debate over the Voting Rights Act has brought redistricting into focus ahead of the upcoming elections. After the Supreme Court ruling in April in Louisiana v. Callais – which narrowed Section Two of the Voting Rights Act – states are allowed to redraw Congressional maps ahead of the 2026 midterms, potentially shifting control of a meaningful number of House seats.
Recent states who have passed new maps include Alabama and Florida, which will likely result in a total gain of 4-5 GOP seats. Other efforts remain undecided: Virginia’s redraw was blocked by the state supreme court, Louisiana is still drawing its replacement map, and additional states in both parties’ control are weighing action — meaning the competitive map will continue to evolve through the summer.
SAVE Act: White House demands to include the SAVE Act in a planned third reconciliation bill continue, but the Senate Parliamentarian has previously ruled the act did not quality for inclusion in the prior immigration reconciliation package. The SAVE Act would require documentary proof of U.S. Citizenship, such as a passport or birth certificate, for individuals registering to vote in federal elections. Because reconciliation is limited to predominantly budgetary matters, attempts to attach the SAVE Act again would likely face the same procedural objection.
Key Toss Ups in the House:
Republican:
- AZ-01 OPEN (Schweikert)
- AZ-06 Ciscomani
- CA-22 Valadao
- CO-08 Evans
- IA-01 Miller-Meeks
- IA-03 Nunn
- MI-07 Barrett
- NJ-07 Kean Jr.
- NY-17 Lawler
- PA-07 Mackenzie
- PA-08 Bresnahan
- PA-10 Perry
- VA-02 Kiggans
- WI-03 Van Orden
Democrats:
Key Toss Ups in the Senate:
Republican
- ME Collins
- OH Husted
Democrat
What you can do now?
With the midterms approaching and many competitive toss ups, we encourage our members to take the following steps to stay engaged and prepared:
- Utilize our to advocate at the state level around the issues you want candidates to prioritize around health care issues
- Monitor emerging candidates in toss-up congressional and gubernatorial races, and track redistricting in your state to identify newly competitive seats as maps evolve.
- Strengthen Voter Outreach by ensuring your communities understand potential documentation requirements and any changes to voter registration processes.
Kylie Bowlds is an Issue Education & External Relations Associate at Lutheran Services in America.