Ahead of November’s midterm elections where the balance of power in the House of Representatives is currently down to a one-seat margin, there are several factors coming into play. From efforts across the country to redraw congressional maps (also known as ‘redistricting’) continue to take shape to several states entangled in legal battles and pending judicial decisions, while other states are considering last-minute changes that could materially alter the electoral map ahead of this year’s midterm elections.
Redistricting & Legal Challenges in States: Recent reporting shows that states including Texas, California, Ohio, Florida, Maryland, Illinois, New York, Utah, Missouri, and North Carolina are either facing active lawsuits, implementing new maps, or considering further redistricting measures.
Federal Law: Two major pieces of federal law — the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act and the Voting Rights Act — also have the potential to significantly influence the conditions under which the midterms unfold.
The SAVE Act, which passed the House in 2025, would require documentary proof of U.S. citizenship for voter registration in federal elections. This requirement would effectively make online and mail–in registration inaccessible, since applicants must present original documents in person. Analyses indicate that access to qualifying documents varies widely across demographic groups, with low–income voters, urban residents, and others facing potential barriers due to difficulties obtaining or updating documents such as birth certificates or passports.
Under the Voting Rights Act, the Supreme Court’s upcoming decision in Louisiana v. Callais could significantly weaken or even effectively eliminate Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act –a provision that has long prevented states from dismantling minority opportunity districts. If the Court guts Section 2, Republicans could gain numerous House seats across the South, though tight election timelines may limit states’ ability to redraw maps before the midterms elections later this year.
Taken together, these legal and legislative developments introduce substantial uncertainty into the 2026 landscape, with both voter access and the shape of key congressional districts hanging in the balance. And with so much still unsettled, the stakes become even clearer when looking at the individual House and Senate races that will ultimately decide control of Congress.
In the House, Democratic Toss Ups include:
- OH-01 Landsman
- OH-09 Kaptur
- TX-34 Gonzalez
- WZ-03 Perez
Republican Toss Ups:
- AZ-01 Open (Schweikert)
- AZ-06 Ciscomani
- CA-22 Valadao
- CA-48 Issa
- CO-08 Evans
- IA-01 Miller-Meeks
- IA-03 Nunn
- MI-07 Barrett
- NJ-07 Kean Jr.
- NY-17 Lawler
- PA-07 Mackenzie
- PA-10 Perry
- VA-02 Kiggans
- WI-03 Van Orden
Senate races that are expected to be competitive include:
- Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME)
- Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA)
- Open seats in Michigan and North Carolina
What you can do now?
With the midterms approaching and many competitive toss ups, we encourage our members to take the following steps to stay engaged and prepared:
- Stay connected and monitor emerging candidates in toss-up states and districts — including congressional and gubernatorial races.
- Monitor State Level Redistricting in your State to stay aware of any newly competitive seats that emerge as maps evolve.
- Utilize the Congressional calendar to check as to when your elected officials are on recess and available for meetings and site visits.
- Strengthen Voter Outreach by ensuring your communities understand potential documentation requirements and any changes to voter registration processes.
Kylie Bowlds is an Issue Education & External Relations Associate at Lutheran Services in America.
