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What We’re Seeing as Midterm Elections Take Shape

October 12, 2026

BY: Kylie Bowlds

As the midterm elections take shape, we continue to monitor key races that will determine the legislative direction of Congress. Current projections suggest the House will flip to a Democratic majority while the Senate is likely to remain in Republican control. With a significant number of House seats in play, shifting committee majorities will directly impact how healthcare and human services policies are drafted, funded, and overseen in the next Congress.  

Shared Voter Priorities: Economic Affordability 

Economic affordability remains a defining issue for voters across the political spectrum. Rising costs associated with housing, healthcare, and workforce stability remain top of mind for voters, putting pressure on candidates from both parties to present clear economic solutions. 

Emerging Infrastructure Issues in Swing Districts  

Beyond economic concerns, localized infrastructure challenges have emerged as notable points of discussion in competitive districts. In several key battlegrounds, the rapid expansion of digital infrastructure and energy-intensive data centers has sparked broader debate surrounding local land use, grid reliability, and residential utility costs. 

The Congressional Battleground 

While political experts are suggesting the House majority will flip to the Democrats, how large their majority could be and which seats will flip remains to be seen. 37 districts are rated competitive. They are not Democratic-leaning: on average, Trump won them by 5 points in 2024. About 25 of them are seriously in play. Those are the seats Trump won by 10 points or less, and Democrats are spending money there. 

As we get closer to the election, it will be increasingly important to monitor projected seat flips, particularly in races that could affect the membership of committees with jurisdiction over key policy priorities. These committees will be central to decisions regarding federal health care funding, appropriations, and other issues of importance to our network. 

Senate races are a mixed bag. Some have become clearer, while others remain toss ups. Republicans are defending seats in the following states: Maine, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, and Texas. Democrats are struggling in Michigan and New Hampshire—both seats are currently held by Democrats who are retiring.  

Key Toss-ups in the House:

Republican:   

Democrat:    

Key Toss-ups in the Senate:    

Republican   

Democrat   

What can you do now?    

With the midterms approaching and many competitive toss-up races, we encourage our members to take the following steps to stay engaged and prepared:   

  • Monitor candidates in toss-up Congressional and gubernatorial races, and review redistricting in your state to identify newly competitive seats as maps evolve.   
  • Strengthen voter outreach by making sure the people you serve understand any documentation requirements and changes to voter registration processes in your state.

Kylie Bowlds is an Issue Education & External Relations Associate at Lutheran Services in America.

Midterm Elections: What We’re Watching

September 14, 2026

BY: Kylie Bowlds

With midterm Election Day quickly approaching, political analysts view both chambers as genuinely in play. The Cook Political Report currently gives Democrats the advantage in the fight for the House majority, and over the summer, they moved several Republican-held Senate seats to ‘competitive’ leaving more uncertainty. 

Spotlight on the Senate:  

Control of the Senate remains one of the central questions of the 2026 midterm elections. Although Republicans currently hold the majority, the outcome may hinge on a small number of races in competitive states. Democrats would need a net gain of four seats to take control in January 2027 — meaning they must retain every seat they currently have and flip four Republican-held seats. Throughout much of the cycle, analysts have viewed nine Senate races as the seats most likely to change party hands: six Republican-held seats in Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, Iowa, and Alaska, and three Democratic-held seats in Georgia, Michigan, and New Hampshire.

More recently, two additional GOP-held seats, in Kansas and Nebraska, have emerged as potentially competitive. Democrats face an uphill climb, targeting several Republican-held seats in states that strongly backed Trump. Several other states—Montana, South Carolina, Florida, Mississippi, and South Dakota—offer potential pickup opportunities for Democrats, but those races are widely viewed as longer-shot opportunities that would require notable upsets to flip.

From Solid Republican to Likely Republican? 

Kansas and Nebraska each present unusual circumstances that have drawn national attention to races that have not recently been contested.  

Kansas: Incumbent Republican Sen. Roger Marshall faces Democratic nominee Adam Hamilton, a United Methodist pastor who explored an independent bid before running as a Democrat. Hamilton won a crowded August primary and set a state record for Senate campaign fundraising. Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932.  

Nebraska: Independent Dan Osborn is challenging Republican incumbent Pete Ricketts. Previously, Osborn lost to Sen. Deb Fischer (R) by fewer than seven points in 2024 in a state President Trump carried by twenty. Osborn has said he would not caucus with either party, meaning a win here would complicate the majority math rather than settle it. 

Why does this matter? 

Unlike the House, where a national shift can move dozens of races at once, the Senate turns on a handful of states. Of course, the ‘majority party’ in each chamber essentially sets the agenda including the federal funding for key programs supported across the Lutheran Services in America network, including — Medicaid, SNAP, aging and disability services, and child welfare among them. Engagement is essential as November approaches, and as we look ahead to 2027. 

Key Toss Ups in House:  

Republican:  

  • MI-10 OPEN (James) 
  • OH-07 Miller  
  • WI-03 Van Orden  

Democrat:   

  • FL-14 Castor 

Key Toss Ups in Senate:   

Republican  

  • AK Sullivan 
  • IA OPEN (Ernst)  
  • ME Collins 
  • OH Husted  
  • TX OPEN (Cornyn) 

Democrat  

Note that “toss-up” is a narrower category than “battleground” — several of the nine battleground races, including North Carolina and Georgia, are currently rated Lean rather than Toss Up. 

What can you do now?   

With the midterms approaching and many competitive toss– up races, we encourage our members to take the following steps to stay engaged and prepared:  

  • Monitor emerging candidates in toss-up Congressional and gubernatorial races, and track redistricting in your state to identify newly competitive seats as maps evolve.  
  • Strengthen voter outreach by making sure the people you serve understand any documentation requirements and changes to voter registration processes in your state.

Kylie Bowlds is an Issue Education & External Relations Associate at Lutheran Services in America.

Midterm Elections: Redistricting and Competitive House Races

March 3, 2026

BY: Kylie Bowlds

Ahead of November’s midterm elections where the balance of power in the House of Representatives is currently down to a one-seat margin, there are several factors coming into play. From efforts across the country to redraw congressional maps (also known as ‘redistricting’) continue to take shape to several states entangled in legal battles and pending judicial decisions, while other states are considering last-minute changes that could materially alter the electoral map ahead of this year’s midterm elections.

Redistricting & Legal Challenges in States: Recent reporting shows that states including Texas, California, Ohio, Florida, Maryland, Illinois, New York, Utah, Missouri, and North Carolina are either facing active lawsuits, implementing new maps, or considering further redistricting measures.

Federal Law: Two major pieces of federal law — the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act and the Voting Rights Act — also have the potential to significantly influence the conditions under which the midterms unfold.

The SAVE Act, which passed the House in 2025, would require documentary proof of U.S. citizenship for voter registration in federal elections. This requirement would effectively make online and mail–in registration inaccessible, since applicants must present original documents in person. Analyses indicate that access to qualifying documents varies widely across demographic groups, with low–income voters, urban residents, and others facing potential barriers due to difficulties obtaining or updating documents such as birth certificates or passports.

Under the Voting Rights Act, the Supreme Court’s upcoming decision in Louisiana v. Callais could significantly weaken or even effectively eliminate Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act –a provision that has long prevented states from dismantling minority opportunity districts. If the Court guts Section 2, Republicans could gain numerous House seats across the South, though tight election timelines may limit states’ ability to redraw maps before the midterms elections later this year.

Taken together, these legal and legislative developments introduce substantial uncertainty into the 2026 landscape, with both voter access and the shape of key congressional districts hanging in the balance. And with so much still unsettled, the stakes become even clearer when looking at the individual House and Senate races that will ultimately decide control of Congress.

In the House, Democratic Toss Ups include:

  • OH-01 Landsman
  • OH-09 Kaptur
  • TX-34 Gonzalez
  • WZ-03 Perez

Republican Toss Ups:

  • AZ-01 Open (Schweikert)
  • AZ-06 Ciscomani
  • CA-22 Valadao
  • CA-48 Issa
  • CO-08 Evans
  • IA-01 Miller-Meeks
  • IA-03 Nunn
  • MI-07 Barrett
  • NJ-07 Kean Jr.
  • NY-17 Lawler
  • PA-07 Mackenzie
  • PA-10 Perry
  • VA-02 Kiggans
  • WI-03 Van Orden

Senate races that are expected to be competitive include:

  • Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME)
  • Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA)
  • Open seats in Michigan and North Carolina

What you can do now? 

With the midterms approaching and many competitive toss ups, we encourage our members to take the following steps to stay engaged and prepared:

  • Stay connected and monitor emerging candidates in toss-up states and districts — including congressional and gubernatorial races.
  • Monitor State Level Redistricting in your State to stay aware of any newly competitive seats that emerge as maps evolve.
  • Utilize the Congressional calendar to check as to when your elected officials are on recess and available for meetings and site visits.
  • Strengthen Voter Outreach by ensuring your communities understand potential documentation requirements and any changes to voter registration processes.

Kylie Bowlds is an Issue Education & External Relations Associate at Lutheran Services in America.

Congress Watch: Redistricting and the Road to the 2026 Midterms

December 19, 2025

BY: Kylie Bowlds

The outlook of the 2026 midterm elections continues to evolve as both parties focus on key House districts that will determine the balance of power in Congress. Key toss-up races continue to take shape as various states seek to redraw maps ahead of the 2026 midterms – aiming to flip or add additional seats. However, in many blue and purple states with independent redistricting commissions, it is too late for legislatures to amend their states’ constitutions to do so.  

For Republicans, redistricting could yield a net gain of four to five House seats. Alternatively, Democrats could net two to four House seats as well, depending on how new maps are implemented across key states. Various factors – pending court rulings, ballot initiatives, etc. – will heavily impact these outcomes.    

Toss-Ups to Watch

Senate: Several Senate races are expected to be highly competitive. These include:  

  • Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME)  
  • Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA)  
  • Open seats in Michigan and North Carolina  

House:  On the Democratic side, toss seats include:  

  • AZ-13 (Gray)  
  • NM-02 (Vasquez)  
  • NY-04 (Gillen)  
  • OH-01 (Landsman)  
  • WA-03 (Perez)  

Republican-held seats that are expected to be competitive include:  

  • AZ-01 (Ciscomani)  
  • CA-22 (Valadao)  
  • CA-48 (Issa)  
  • CO-08 (Evans)  
  • IA-01 (Miller-Meeks)  
  • MI-07 (Barrett)  
  • NJ-07 (Kean Jr.)  
  • PA-07 (Mackenzie)  
  • PA-10 (Perry)  
  • VA-02 (Kiggans)  
  • WI-03 (Van Orden)  
  • An open seat in Arizona 

What You Can Do Now

With the midterms approaching and many competitive toss ups, we encourage our members to:  

  • Stay connected and monitor emerging candidates in toss-up states and districts — including congressional and gubernatorial races.  
  • Utilize the Congressional calendar to check as to when your elected officials are on recess and available for meetings and site visits.  

For your organizational advocacy efforts, engagement at both the federal and state levels is increasingly important. Elected officials on all levels of government play a role in shaping critical policies. Continued engagement and relationship building ensure that your voice and the voice of those in your communities are represented. 

Kylie Bowlds is an Issue Education & External Relations Associate at Lutheran Services in America.

Election Watch: What’s at Stake in November that may Impact Health Legislation?

August 26, 2024

BY: Sarah Dobson and Tony Brozey

As we are tracking the November elections with an eye toward impact on the work of the Lutheran Services in America network, we will be highlighting key races of members on committees with jurisdiction over issues that matter to us.  As you know, the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions (HELP) Committee and the House Energy and Commerce (E&C) Committee have jurisdiction over issues critical to our work. The HELP Committee plays a crucial role in shaping national policies related to healthcare and the workforce, while Energy and Commerce has broad jurisdiction over healthcare and the regulations and laws that govern the sector.

Senate HELP Committee

Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA), a senior member of the HELP Committee and chair of the Special Committee on Aging, is seeking re-election and is running against Republican Dave McCormick. Early projections and polls estimate that Casey is currently expected to beat his opponent, with some estimates giving Casey as much as a 10-percentage-point edge. Of course, Pennsylvania is a key battleground state in this year’s presidential election and so the race is expected to tighten. Lutheran Services in America and the Disability Network have worked extensively with Sen. Casey on legislation such as S. 100, the Better Care, Better Jobs Act; S. 762, the HCBS Access Act, and S. 4120, the Long-Term Care Workforce Support Act. We will continue to watch this race.

House E&C Committee

House Energy & Commerce (E&C) chair Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA) is not seeking re-election. Her successor as leader of the committee will be determined first by whether the Democrats or Republicans have the majority in the House, and then through internal party deliberations. As chair, Rep. McMorris Rodgers has championed legislation addressing the needs of people with disabilities and served as a speaker at LSA-DN meetings. We will be closely monitoring who becomes chair of this committee, given the scope of their work, and ensuring an ongoing relationship for our network.

To learn more about our work with these lawmakers, or their legislation, please reach out.

Sarah Dobson is Senior Director of Public Policy and Advocacy.

Tony Brozey is a summer intern with the government affairs team at Lutheran Services in America.

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