Congress Watch: Redistricting and the Road to the 2026 Midterms

December 19, 2025

The outlook of the 2026 midterm elections continues to evolve as both parties focus on key House districts that will determine the balance of power in Congress. Key toss-up races continue to take shape as various states seek to redraw maps ahead of the 2026 midterms – aiming to flip or add additional seats. However, in many blue and purple states with independent redistricting commissions, it is too late for legislatures to amend their states’ constitutions to do so.  

For Republicans, redistricting could yield a net gain of four to five House seats. Alternatively, Democrats could net two to four House seats as well, depending on how new maps are implemented across key states. Various factors – pending court rulings, ballot initiatives, etc. – will heavily impact these outcomes.    

Toss-Ups to Watch

Senate: Several Senate races are expected to be highly competitive. These include:  

  • Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME)  
  • Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA)  
  • Open seats in Michigan and North Carolina  

House:  On the Democratic side, toss seats include:  

  • AZ-13 (Gray)  
  • NM-02 (Vasquez)  
  • NY-04 (Gillen)  
  • OH-01 (Landsman)  
  • WA-03 (Perez)  

Republican-held seats that are expected to be competitive include:  

  • AZ-01 (Ciscomani) 
  • CA-22 (Valadao) 
  • CA-48 (Issa) 
  • CO-08 (Evans)  
  • IA-01 (Miller-Meeks)  
  • MI-07 (Barrett)  
  • NJ-07 (Kean Jr.)  
  • PA-07 (Mackenzie)  
  • PA-10 (Perry)  
  • VA-02 (Kiggans)  
  • WI-03 (Van Orden)  
  • An open seat in Arizona 

What You Can Do Now

With the midterms approaching and many competitive toss ups, we encourage our members to:  

  • Stay connected and monitor emerging candidates in toss-up states and districts — including congressional and gubernatorial races.  
  • Utilize the Congressional calendarto check as to when your elected officials are on recess and available for meetings and site visits.  

For your organizational advocacy efforts, engagement at both the federal and state levels is increasingly important. Elected officials on all levels of government play a role in shaping critical policies. Continued engagement and relationship building ensure that your voice and the voice of those in your communities are represented. 

Kylie Bowlds is an Issue Education & External Relations Associate at Lutheran Services in America.

Leadership of Key Congressional Committees Finalized

February 10, 2025

With Republicans in the majority in both chambers of Congress, leadership changes on key committees that affect healthcare, workforce, and housing policy are now finalized. Lutheran Services in America will engage these leaders in partnership with members to strengthen relationships and advance advocacy priorities.

HOUSING: Across our network, we are committed to addressing housing insecurity as an economic and health crisis. Our work in Congress on this issue will focus on the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee, now chaired by Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) with Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) serving as the lead Democrat, and the House Financial Services Committee, led by Rep. French Hill (R-AR) and Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA).

HEALTH & WORKFORCE: Turning to healthcare and workforce issues, multiple committees have jurisdiction over various areas of the law. The Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions (HELP) Committee will now be led by Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA), with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) serving as the lead minority member.  At the Senate Finance Committee, which oversees health programs under the Social Security Act, including Medicare, Medicaid, and the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP), Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID) has become chair, and Sen. Ron Wyden will lead Democrats on the panel.

In the House, the Energy and Commerce (E&C) Committee has broad jurisdiction over healthcare and the regulations and laws that govern the sector, while the Ways and Means Committee has jurisdiction over revenue-related aspects of the Social Security system, Medicare, and social services programs, including foster care and adoption programs—and like Senate Finance, also has a key role in shaping tax policy, including an expected 2025 tax bill. Finally, the House Education and Workforce Committee has jurisdiction over education, workforce development, and workforce policy.

Here is where things stand with key House committees:

  • House Energy & Commerce: Brett Guthrie (R-KY) was elected as chair while Rep. Frank Pallone (D-NJ) will serve as ranking minority member for Democrats.
  • House Ways & Means: Rep. Jason Smith (R-MO) will hold the top spot at Ways & Means (W&M). Rep. Richard Neal (D-MA) will remain in his role as the committee’s top Democrat.
  • House Education and Workforce Committee: Rep. Tim Walberg (R-MI) will be the new Republican chair, with Rep. Bobby Scott (D-VA) leading the Democrats.

Contact Sarah Dobson for more information.

Sarah Dobson is Senior Director of Advocacy and Public Policy at Lutheran Services in America.

TOGETHER,

we make life better for children, youth, and families today—and for generations to come.

Our shared Lutheran tradition of service to our neighbor is more vital than ever.

Join us as we work to ensure our network continues delivering essential services to all in need.