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Tag: midterms

Midterm Elections: Current State of Play

August 18, 2026

BY: Carl Dexter

With the primaries in full swing, both Democrats and Republicans are watching key races that will shape the midterm matchups in November and ultimately determine who controls Congress next year. Upcoming primaries will give heightened insight into the direction of the Democratic party, with voters in many states choosing between moderate and progressive candidates. 

Michigan in Focus 

Michigan has emerged as one of the most closely watched battlegrounds of the 2026 election cycle. The state features both a highly competitive Senate race and one of the nation’s key House battlegrounds, making it a critical test of political trends heading into November. 

In the Senate race to replace retiring incumbent Gary Peters (D), former U.S. Representative Mike Rogers, the Republican nominee, will face Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, a former Wayne County health director backed by Senator Bernie Sanders. El-Sayed secured the Democratic nomination in the August 4 primary after narrowly defeating U.S. Representative Haley Stevens approximately 48.5% to 47.5% in one of the cycle’s closest and most expensive Democratic primaries. The campaign highlighted ongoing debates within the Democratic Party over the strengths of progressive versus more centrist candidates. 

The battle for Michigan’s 7th Congressional District is expected to be one of the most competitive House races in the country. Republican incumbent Tom Barrett first won the seat in 2024 with 50.3% of the vote and is seeking a second term. On August 4, Democratic voters nominated William Lawrence, a progressive organizer endorsed by Senator Bernie Sanders, to challenge Barrett in November. Lawrence emerged the victor following a three-way primary, setting up a closely watched general election contest in a district widely viewed as a toss-up. 

Michigan’s political landscape reflects broader national dynamics shaping the 2026 midterms. Democrats continue to navigate tensions between their progressive and moderate wings, while Republicans face the challenge of defending key seats and maintaining their congressional majorities. and maintaining their congressional majorities.  

Redistricting and State Legal Challenges 

Redistricting efforts and related legal challenges continue to contribute to uncertainty and the potential for major shake-ups post-election.  Following the April Supreme Court ruling in Louisiana v. Callais—which narrowed Section Two of the Voting Rights Act—states were allowed to redraw Congressional maps ahead of the midterms, and 10 states have done so:  Alabama, California, Florida, Louisiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee, Texas.  Additionally, Maryland lawmakers held a special session to consider a partisan redistricting effort, while New York passed a redistricting amendment which could potentially lead to a gain of 4 Democratic seats, but which still requires another vote next year and public approval. Finally, redistricting plans were considered but failed in Virginia, South Carolina, Georgia, Indiana, and Washington. 

Key Races to Watch 

In the House, Democratic Toss Ups include: 

  • FL-25 Moskowitz 
  • OH-09 Kaptur 
  • TX-34 Gonzalez 
  • WA-03 Perez 

Republican Toss Ups: 

  • AZ-01 Open (Schweikert) 
  • AZ-06 Ciscomani 
  • CA-22 Valadao 
  • CO-08 Evans 
  • IA-01 Miller-Meeks 
  • IA-03 Nunn 
  • MI-07 Barrett 
  • NJ-07 Kean Jr. 
  • NY-17 Lawler 
  • PA-07 Mackenzie 
  • PA-08 Bresnahan 
  • PA-10 Perry 
  • VA-02 Kiggans 
  • WI-03 Van Orden 

Senate races that are expected to be competitive include: 

  • AK Sullivan (R) 
  • ME Collins (R) 
  • MI OPEN (Peters, D) 
  • OH Husted (R)

What You Can Do Now

With so many competitive races in the fast-approaching midterms, we encourage our members to take the following steps to stay engaged and prepared: 

  • Stay connected and monitor candidates in toss-up states and districts — including congressional and gubernatorial races. 
  • Monitor state level redistricting in your state to stay aware of any newly competitive seats that emerge as maps evolve. 
  • Leverage the August Congressional Recess to schedule meetings and site visits while lawmakers are back in their states and districts for several weeks. 
  • Strengthen Voter Outreach by ensuring your communities understand potential documentation requirements and any changes to voter registration processes. 

Carl Dexter is an Intern at Lutheran Services in America.

Midterm Elections: What to Watch Ahead of November

June 17, 2026

BY: Kylie Bowlds

The Current Landscape

As the Midterm elections approach, key primaries are beginning to shed light on potential outcomes of the November elections. Republicans are defending narrow majorities in both chambers, with a 5-seat margin in the House and a 3-seat margin in the Senate, while contending with historical headwinds. Republicans are less unified in their messaging, with leadership touting actions stemming from passage of H.R. 1, while other candidates in tight races are distancing themselves from the cuts made to Medicaid.

Meanwhile, Democrats seek to strengthen their chances of retaking House and potentially Senate majorities centered around cost-of-living concerns and opposition to recent health care cuts.

What’s at Stake?

A Democratic majority would likely result in efforts to reverse recent health care cuts, while continued Republican control of both chambers would likely mean a sustained emphasis on oversight and continued implementation of H.R. 1 provisions.

Race to Redistrict: The debate over the Voting Rights Act has brought redistricting into focus ahead of the upcoming elections. After the Supreme Court ruling in April in Louisiana v. Callais – which narrowed Section Two of the Voting Rights Act – states are allowed to redraw Congressional maps ahead of the 2026 midterms, potentially shifting control of a meaningful number of House seats.

Recent states who have passed new maps include Alabama and Florida, which will likely result in a total gain of 4-5 GOP seats. Other efforts remain undecided: Virginia’s redraw was blocked by the state supreme court, Louisiana is still drawing its replacement map, and additional states in both parties’ control are weighing action — meaning the competitive map will continue to evolve through the summer.

SAVE Act: White House demands to include the SAVE Act in a planned third reconciliation bill continue, but the Senate Parliamentarian has previously ruled the act did not quality for inclusion in the prior immigration reconciliation package. The SAVE Act would require documentary proof of U.S. Citizenship, such as a passport or birth certificate, for individuals registering to vote in federal elections. Because reconciliation is limited to predominantly budgetary matters, attempts to attach the SAVE Act again would likely face the same procedural objection.

Key Toss Ups in the House:

Republican:

Democrats:

Key Toss Ups in the Senate:

Republican

Democrat

What you can do now? 

With the midterms approaching and many competitive toss ups, we encourage our members to take the following steps to stay engaged and prepared:

  • Utilize our to advocate at the state level around the issues you want candidates to prioritize around health care issues
  • Monitor emerging candidates in toss-up congressional and gubernatorial races, and track redistricting in your state to identify newly competitive seats as maps evolve.
  • Strengthen Voter Outreach by ensuring your communities understand potential documentation requirements and any changes to voter registration processes.

Kylie Bowlds is an Issue Education & External Relations Associate at Lutheran Services in America.

Midterm Elections: Redistricting and Competitive House Races

March 3, 2026

BY: Kylie Bowlds

Ahead of November’s midterm elections where the balance of power in the House of Representatives is currently down to a one-seat margin, there are several factors coming into play. From efforts across the country to redraw congressional maps (also known as ‘redistricting’) continue to take shape to several states entangled in legal battles and pending judicial decisions, while other states are considering last-minute changes that could materially alter the electoral map ahead of this year’s midterm elections.

Redistricting & Legal Challenges in States: Recent reporting shows that states including Texas, California, Ohio, Florida, Maryland, Illinois, New York, Utah, Missouri, and North Carolina are either facing active lawsuits, implementing new maps, or considering further redistricting measures.

Federal Law: Two major pieces of federal law — the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act and the Voting Rights Act — also have the potential to significantly influence the conditions under which the midterms unfold.

The SAVE Act, which passed the House in 2025, would require documentary proof of U.S. citizenship for voter registration in federal elections. This requirement would effectively make online and mail–in registration inaccessible, since applicants must present original documents in person. Analyses indicate that access to qualifying documents varies widely across demographic groups, with low–income voters, urban residents, and others facing potential barriers due to difficulties obtaining or updating documents such as birth certificates or passports.

Under the Voting Rights Act, the Supreme Court’s upcoming decision in Louisiana v. Callais could significantly weaken or even effectively eliminate Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act –a provision that has long prevented states from dismantling minority opportunity districts. If the Court guts Section 2, Republicans could gain numerous House seats across the South, though tight election timelines may limit states’ ability to redraw maps before the midterms elections later this year.

Taken together, these legal and legislative developments introduce substantial uncertainty into the 2026 landscape, with both voter access and the shape of key congressional districts hanging in the balance. And with so much still unsettled, the stakes become even clearer when looking at the individual House and Senate races that will ultimately decide control of Congress.

In the House, Democratic Toss Ups include:

  • OH-01 Landsman
  • OH-09 Kaptur
  • TX-34 Gonzalez
  • WZ-03 Perez

Republican Toss Ups:

  • AZ-01 Open (Schweikert)
  • AZ-06 Ciscomani
  • CA-22 Valadao
  • CA-48 Issa
  • CO-08 Evans
  • IA-01 Miller-Meeks
  • IA-03 Nunn
  • MI-07 Barrett
  • NJ-07 Kean Jr.
  • NY-17 Lawler
  • PA-07 Mackenzie
  • PA-10 Perry
  • VA-02 Kiggans
  • WI-03 Van Orden

Senate races that are expected to be competitive include:

  • Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME)
  • Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA)
  • Open seats in Michigan and North Carolina

What you can do now? 

With the midterms approaching and many competitive toss ups, we encourage our members to take the following steps to stay engaged and prepared:

  • Stay connected and monitor emerging candidates in toss-up states and districts — including congressional and gubernatorial races.
  • Monitor State Level Redistricting in your State to stay aware of any newly competitive seats that emerge as maps evolve.
  • Utilize the Congressional calendar to check as to when your elected officials are on recess and available for meetings and site visits.
  • Strengthen Voter Outreach by ensuring your communities understand potential documentation requirements and any changes to voter registration processes.

Kylie Bowlds is an Issue Education & External Relations Associate at Lutheran Services in America.

Congress Watch: Redistricting and the Road to the 2026 Midterms

December 19, 2025

BY: Kylie Bowlds

The outlook of the 2026 midterm elections continues to evolve as both parties focus on key House districts that will determine the balance of power in Congress. Key toss-up races continue to take shape as various states seek to redraw maps ahead of the 2026 midterms – aiming to flip or add additional seats. However, in many blue and purple states with independent redistricting commissions, it is too late for legislatures to amend their states’ constitutions to do so.  

For Republicans, redistricting could yield a net gain of four to five House seats. Alternatively, Democrats could net two to four House seats as well, depending on how new maps are implemented across key states. Various factors – pending court rulings, ballot initiatives, etc. – will heavily impact these outcomes.    

Toss-Ups to Watch

Senate: Several Senate races are expected to be highly competitive. These include:  

  • Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME)  
  • Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA)  
  • Open seats in Michigan and North Carolina  

House:  On the Democratic side, toss seats include:  

  • AZ-13 (Gray)  
  • NM-02 (Vasquez)  
  • NY-04 (Gillen)  
  • OH-01 (Landsman)  
  • WA-03 (Perez)  

Republican-held seats that are expected to be competitive include:  

  • AZ-01 (Ciscomani)  
  • CA-22 (Valadao)  
  • CA-48 (Issa)  
  • CO-08 (Evans)  
  • IA-01 (Miller-Meeks)  
  • MI-07 (Barrett)  
  • NJ-07 (Kean Jr.)  
  • PA-07 (Mackenzie)  
  • PA-10 (Perry)  
  • VA-02 (Kiggans)  
  • WI-03 (Van Orden)  
  • An open seat in Arizona 

What You Can Do Now

With the midterms approaching and many competitive toss ups, we encourage our members to:  

  • Stay connected and monitor emerging candidates in toss-up states and districts — including congressional and gubernatorial races.  
  • Utilize the Congressional calendar to check as to when your elected officials are on recess and available for meetings and site visits.  

For your organizational advocacy efforts, engagement at both the federal and state levels is increasingly important. Elected officials on all levels of government play a role in shaping critical policies. Continued engagement and relationship building ensure that your voice and the voice of those in your communities are represented. 

Kylie Bowlds is an Issue Education & External Relations Associate at Lutheran Services in America.

Congress Watch: Midterm Elections That Could Sway the Balance of Power

October 22, 2025

BY: Sarah Dobson

With Republicans currently holding control across the executive, legislative, and judicial branches of the U.S. government, the 2026 midterm elections are emerging at a critical juncture for the future direction of federal policy. The outcome of these elections determines whether we will see the continuation of complete Republican control, or whether a new balance of power emerges, most likely through a Democratic shift in the House of Representatives. 

Key races in both chambers are beginning to take shape, and we’re closely tracking a growing number of toss-up contests that will determine the control of Congress. As these campaigns continue to take shape, early and sustained engagement with both current and prospective lawmakers is essential to make sure our collective voices are heard. Now is the time to build relationships that will help inform and educate future decision-making and to ensure the interests of the communities we serve are prioritized.

Toss-Ups to Watch

Senate: Several Senate races are expected to be highly competitive. These include: 

  • Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) 
  • Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) 
  • Open seats in Michigan and North Carolina 

House: On the Democratic side, toss up seats include: 

  • AZ-13 (Gray) 
  • CA-45 (Tran) 
  • ME-02 (Golden) 
  • NC-01 (Davis) 
  • NM-02 (Vasquez) 
  • NY-04 (Gillen) 
  • OH-09 (Kaptur) 
  • OH-13 (Sykes) 
  • TX-28 (Cuellar) 
  • WA-03 (Perez) 

Republican-held seats that are expected to be competitive include: 

  • AZ-01 (Ciscomani) 
  • CO-08 (Evans) 
  • IA-01 (Miller-Meeks) 
  • MI-07 (Barrett) 
  • PA-07 (Mackenzie) 
  • PA-10 (Perry)  
  • WI-03 (Van Orden) 
  • An open seat in Arizona 

What You Can Do Now

Members of Congress will recess the week of November 10 in observance of the Veterans Day holiday. This presents a timely and strategic opportunity to engage directly with elected officials in their home districts and states. We strongly encourage our members to: 

  • Request in-district or in-state meetings with their representatives 
  • Invite lawmakers for site visits to showcase the impact of your work firsthand 

These conversations are instrumental in building lasting relationships with policymakers and in ensuring your priorities are represented in the decisions that follow.

Sarah Dobson is Senior Director of Advocacy and Public Policy at Lutheran Services in America.

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