The outlook of the 2026 midterm elections continues to evolve as both parties focus on key House districts that will determine the balance of power in Congress. Key toss-up races continue to take shape as various states seek to redraw maps ahead of the 2026 midterms – aiming to flip or add additional seats. However, in many blue and purple states with independent redistricting commissions, it is too late for legislatures to amend their states’ constitutions to do so.
For Republicans, redistricting could yield a net gain of four to five House seats. Alternatively, Democrats could net two to four House seats as well, depending on how new maps are implemented across key states. Various factors – pending court rulings, ballot initiatives, etc. – will heavily impact these outcomes.
Toss-Ups to Watch
Senate: Several Senate races are expected to be highly competitive. These include:
- Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME)
- Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA)
- Open seats in Michigan and North Carolina
House: On the Democratic side, toss seats include:
- AZ-13 (Gray)
- NM-02 (Vasquez)
- NY-04 (Gillen)
- OH-01 (Landsman)
- WA-03 (Perez)
Republican-held seats that are expected to be competitive include:
- AZ-01 (Ciscomani)
- CA-22 (Valadao)
- CA-48 (Issa)
- CO-08 (Evans)
- IA-01 (Miller-Meeks)
- MI-07 (Barrett)
- NJ-07 (Kean Jr.)
- PA-07 (Mackenzie)
- PA-10 (Perry)
- VA-02 (Kiggans)
- WI-03 (Van Orden)
- An open seat in Arizona
What You Can Do Now
With the midterms approaching and many competitive toss ups, we encourage our members to:
- Stay connected and monitor emerging candidates in toss-up states and districts — including congressional and gubernatorial races.
- Utilize the Congressional calendar to check as to when your elected officials are on recess and available for meetings and site visits.
For your organizational advocacy efforts, engagement at both the federal and state levels is increasingly important. Elected officials on all levels of government play a role in shaping critical policies. Continued engagement and relationship building ensure that your voice and the voice of those in your communities are represented.
Kylie Bowlds is an Issue Education & External Relations Associate at Lutheran Services in America.
